Title: | Bayesian Dynamic Systems Modeling |
Version: | 0.2.1 |
Description: | Implements methods for building and analyzing models based on panel data as described in the paper by Moral-Benito (2013, <doi:10.1080/07350015.2013.818003>). The package provides functions to estimate dynamic panel data models and analyze the results of the estimation. |
License: | MIT + file LICENSE |
Encoding: | UTF-8 |
LazyData: | true |
RoxygenNote: | 7.3.2 |
Suggests: | rmarkdown, spelling, testthat (≥ 3.0.0) |
Config/testthat/edition: | 3 |
Imports: | dplyr, ggplot2, ggpubr, grid, gridExtra, knitr, magrittr, optimbase, parallel, pbapply, rje, rlang, rootSolve, stats, tidyr, tidyselect |
Depends: | R (≥ 3.5) |
Language: | en-US |
NeedsCompilation: | no |
Packaged: | 2025-05-02 18:37:24 UTC; root |
Author: | Mateusz Wyszynski [aut], Marcin Dubel [ctb, cre], Krzysztof Beck [ctb] |
Maintainer: | Marcin Dubel <marcindubel@gmail.com> |
Repository: | CRAN |
Date/Publication: | 2025-05-02 18:50:02 UTC |
Table with the best models according to one of the posterior criteria
Description
This function creates a ranking of best models according to one of the possible criterion (PMP under binomial model prior, PMP under binomial-beta model prior, R^2 under binomial model prior, R^2 under binomial-beta model prior). The function gives two types of tables in three different formats: inclusion table (where 1 indicates presence of the regressor in the model and 0 indicates that the variable is excluded from the model) and estimation results table (it displays the best models and estimation output for those models: point estimates, standard errors, significance level, and R^2).
Usage
best_models(
bma_list,
criterion = 1,
best = 5,
round = 3,
estimate = TRUE,
robust = TRUE
)
Arguments
bma_list |
bma object (the result of the bma function) |
criterion |
The criterion that will be used for a basis of the model ranking: |
best |
The number of the best models to be considered |
round |
Parameter indicating the decimal place to which number in the tables should be rounded (default round = 3) |
estimate |
A parameter with values TRUE or FALSE indicating which table should be displayed when
TRUE - table with estimation to the results |
robust |
A parameter with values TRUE or FALSE indicating which type of stanrdard errors should be displayed
when the function finishes calculations. Works only if estimate = TRUE. Works well when best is small. |
Value
A list with best_models objects:
matrix with inclusion of the regressors in the best models
matrix with estimation output in the best models with regular standard errors
matrix with estimation output in the best models with robust standard errors
knitr_kable table with inclusion of the regressors in the best models (the best for the display on the console - up to 11 models)
knitr_kable table with estimation output in the best models with regular standard errors (the best for the display on the console - up to 6 models)
knitr_kable table with estimation output in the best models with robust standard errors (the best for the display on the console - up to 6 models)
gTree table with inclusion of the regressors in the best models (displayed as a plot). Use grid::grid.draw() to display.
gTree table with estimation output in the best models with regular standard errors (displayed as a plot). Use grid::grid.draw() to display.
gTree table with estimation output in the best models with robust standard errors (displayed as a plot). Use grid::grid.draw() to display.
Examples
library(magrittr)
data_prepared <- bdsm::economic_growth[, 1:6] %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
excluded_cols = c(country, year, gdp)
) %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
group_by_col = year,
excluded_cols = country,
scale = FALSE
)
bma_results <- bma(
model_space = bdsm::small_model_space,
df = data_prepared,
round = 3,
dilution = 0
)
best_5_models <- best_models(bma_results, criterion = 1, best = 5, estimate = TRUE, robust = TRUE)
Calculation of the bma object
Description
This function calculates BMA statistics based on the provided model space. Other objects for furhter analysis are also returned.
Usage
bma(model_space, df, round = 4, EMS = NULL, dilution = 0, dil.Par = 0.5)
Arguments
model_space |
List with params and stats from the model space |
df |
Data frame with data for the SEM analysis. |
round |
Parameter indicating the decimal place to which number in the BMA tables and prior and posterior model sizes should be rounded (default round = 4) |
EMS |
Expected model size for model binomial and binomial-beta model prior |
dilution |
Binary parameter: 0 - NO application of a dilution prior; 1 - application of a dilution prior (George 2010). |
dil.Par |
Parameter associated with dilution prior - the exponent of the determinant (George 2010). Used only if parameter dilution = 1. |
Value
A list with 16 elements.
- uniform_table
A table containing the results based on the binomialmodel prior.
- random_table
A table containing the results based on the binomial-beta model prior.
- reg_names
A vector containing the names of the regressors, used by the functions.
- R
The total number of regressors.
- num_of_models
The number of models present in the model space.
- forJointnes
A table containing model IDs and posterior model probabilities (PMPs) for the jointness function.
- forBestModels
A table containing model IDs, PMPs, coefficients, standard deviations,and standardized regression coefficients (stdRs) for the best_models function.
- EMS
The expected model size for the binomial and binomial-beta model priors, as specified by the user (default is EMS = R/2).
- sizePriors
A table of uniform and random model priors distributed over model sizes for the model_sizes function.
- PMPs
A table containing the posterior model probabilities for use in the model_sizes function.
- modelPriors
A table containing the model priors, used by the model_pmp function.
- dilution
A parameter indicating whether the priors were diluted, used in the model_sizes function.
- alphas
A vector of coefficients for the lagged dependent variable in the coef_hist function.
- betas_nonzero
A vector of nonzero coefficients for the regressors in the coef_hist function.
- d_free
A table containing the degrees of freedom for the estimated models in the best_models function.
- PMStable
A table containing the prior and posterior expected model sizes for the binomial and binomial-beta model priors.
Examples
library(magrittr)
data_prepared <- bdsm::economic_growth[, 1:6] %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
excluded_cols = c(country, year, gdp)
) %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
group_by_col = year,
excluded_cols = country,
scale = FALSE
)
bma_results <- bma(
model_space = bdsm::small_model_space,
df = data_prepared,
round = 3,
dilution = 0
)
Graphs of the distribution of the coefficients over the model space
Description
This function draws graphs of the distribution (in the form of histogram or kernel density) of the coefficients for all the considered regressors over the part of the model space that includes this regressors (half of the model space).
Arguments
bma_list |
bma object (the result of the bma function) |
BW |
Parameter indicating what method should be chosen to find bin widths for the histograms:
|
binW |
A vector with bin widths to be used to construct histograms for the regressors. The vector must be of the size equal to total number of regressors. The vector with bin widths is used only if parameter BW="vec". |
BN |
Parameter taking the values (default: BN = 0): |
num |
A vector with the numbers of bins used to be used to construct histograms for the regressors. The vector must be of the size equal to total number of regressors. The vector with bin widths is used only if parameter BN=1. |
kernel |
A parameter taking the values (default: kernel = 0): |
Value
A list with the graphs of the distribution of coefficients for all the considered regressors.
Examples
library(magrittr)
data_prepared <- bdsm::economic_growth[, 1:6] %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
excluded_cols = c(country, year, gdp)
) %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
group_by_col = year,
excluded_cols = country,
scale = FALSE
)
bma_results <- bma(
model_space = bdsm::small_model_space,
df = data_prepared,
round = 3,
dilution = 0
)
coef_plots <- coef_hist(bma_results, kernel = 1)
Approximate standard deviations for the models
Description
Approximate standard deviations are computed for the models in the given model space. Two versions are computed.
Usage
compute_model_space_stats(
df,
dep_var_col,
timestamp_col,
entity_col,
params,
exact_value = FALSE,
model_prior = "uniform",
cl = NULL
)
Arguments
df |
Data frame with data for the SEM analysis. |
dep_var_col |
Column with the dependent variable |
timestamp_col |
The name of the column with timestamps |
entity_col |
Column with entities (e.g. countries) |
params |
A matrix (with named rows) with each column corresponding to a model. Each column specifies model parameters. Compare with optim_model_space_params |
exact_value |
Whether the exact value of the likelihood should be
computed ( |
model_prior |
Which model prior to use. For now there are two options:
|
cl |
An optional cluster object. If supplied, the function will use this
cluster for parallel processing. If |
Value
Matrix with columns describing likelihood and standard deviations for each model. The first row is the likelihood for the model (computed using the parameters in the provided model space). The second row is almost 1/2 * BIC_k as in Raftery's Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research eq. 19 (see TODO in the code below). The third row is model posterior probability. Then there are rows with standard deviations for each parameter. After that we have rows with robust standard deviation (not sure yet what exactly "robust" means).
Examples
library(magrittr)
data_prepared <- bdsm::economic_growth[, 1:6] %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
excluded_cols = c(country, year, gdp)
) %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
group_by_col = year,
excluded_cols = country,
scale = FALSE
)
compute_model_space_stats(
df = data_prepared,
dep_var_col = gdp,
timestamp_col = year,
entity_col = country,
params = small_model_space$params
)
Economic Growth Data
Description
Data used in Growth Empirics in Panel Data under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity (Moral-Benito, 2016, Journal of Applied Econometrics).
Usage
economic_growth
Format
economic_growth
A data frame with 365 rows and 12 columns (73 countries and 4 periods + extra one for lagged dependent variable):
- year
Year
- country
Country ID
- gdp
Logarithm of GDP per capita (2000 US dollars at PP)
- ish
Ratio of real domestic investment to GDP
- sed
Stock of years of secondary education in the total population
- pgrw
Average growth rate of population
- pop
Population in millions of people
- ipr
Purchasing-power-parity numbers for investment goods
- opem
Exports plus imports as a share of GDP
- gsh
Ratio of government consumption to GDP
- lnlex
Logarithm of the life expectancy at birth
- polity
Composite index given by the democracy score minus the autocracy score
Source
http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/jae/datasets/moral-benito001/
Matrix with exogenous variables for SEM representation
Description
Create matrix which contains exogenous variables used in the Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM) representation. Currently these are: dependent variable from the lowest time stamp and regressors from the second lowest time stamp. The matrix is then used to compute likelihood for SEM analysis.
Usage
exogenous_matrix(df, timestamp_col, entity_col, dep_var_col)
Arguments
df |
Data frame with data for the SEM analysis. |
timestamp_col |
Column which determines time periods. For now only natural numbers can be used as timestamps |
entity_col |
Column which determines entities (e.g. countries, people) |
dep_var_col |
Column with dependent variable |
Value
Matrix of size N x k+1 where N is the number of entities considered and k is the number of chosen regressors
Examples
set.seed(1)
df <- data.frame(
entities = rep(1:4, 5),
times = rep(seq(1960, 2000, 10), each = 4),
dep_var = stats::rnorm(20), a = stats::rnorm(20), b = stats::rnorm(20)
)
exogenous_matrix(df, times, entities, dep_var)
Perform feature standardization
Description
This function performs feature standardization (also known as z-score normalization) by centering the features around their mean and scaling by their standard deviation.
Usage
feature_standardization(df, excluded_cols, group_by_col, scale = TRUE)
Arguments
df |
Data frame with the data. |
excluded_cols |
Unquoted column names to exclude from standardization. If missing, all columns are standardized. |
group_by_col |
Unquoted column names to group the data by before applying standardization. If missing, no grouping is performed. |
scale |
Logical. If |
Value
A data frame with standardized features.
Examples
df <- data.frame(
year = c(2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004),
country = c("A", "A", "B", "B", "C"),
gdp = c(1, 2, 3, 4, 5),
ish = c(2, 3, 4, 5, 6),
sed = c(3, 4, 5, 6, 7)
)
# Standardize every column
df_with_only_numeric_values <- df[, setdiff(names(df), "country")]
feature_standardization(df_with_only_numeric_values)
# Standardize all columns except 'country'
feature_standardization(df, excluded_cols = country)
# Standardize across countries (grouped by 'country')
feature_standardization(df, group_by_col = country)
# Standardize, excluding 'country' and group-wise by 'year'
feature_standardization(df, excluded_cols = country, group_by_col = year)
Example output of the optim_model_space function
Description
A list with two elements: params
and stats
computed using the
optim_model_space
function and the economic_growth
dataset.
Usage
full_model_space
Format
full_model_space
A list with two elements.
- params
-
A double matrix with 40 rows and
2^9 = 512
columns with the parameters for the model space. Each column represents a different model. - stats
-
A matrix representing the statistics computed with
compute_model_space_stats
based onparams
. The first row contains likelihoods for the models. The second row are almost 1/2 * BIC_k as in Raftery's Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research, eq. 19. The rows 3-7 are standard deviations. Finally, the rows 8-12 are robust standard deviations.
Hessian matrix
Description
Creates the hessian matrix for a given likelihood function.
Usage
hessian(lik, theta, ...)
Arguments
lik |
function |
theta |
kx1 matrix |
... |
other parameters passed to |
Value
Hessian kxk matrix where k is the number of parameters included in the theta matrix
Examples
lik <- function(theta) {
return(theta[1]^2 + theta[2]^2)
}
hessian(lik, c(1, 1))
Initialize model space matrix
Description
This function builds a representation of the model space, by creating a
dataframe where each column represents values of the parameters for a given
model. Real value means that the parameter is included in the model. A
parameter not present in the model is marked as NA
.
Usage
init_model_space_params(
df,
timestamp_col,
entity_col,
dep_var_col,
init_value = 1
)
Arguments
df |
Data frame with data for the SEM analysis. |
timestamp_col |
Column which determines time periods. For now only natural numbers can be used as timestamps |
entity_col |
Column which determines entities (e.g. countries, people) |
dep_var_col |
Column with dependent variable |
init_value |
Initial value for parameters present in the model. Default
is |
Details
Currently the set of features is assumed to be all columns which remain after
excluding timestamp_col
, entity_col
and dep_var_col
.
A power set of all possible exclusions of linear dependence on the given feature is created, i.e. if there are 4 features we end up with 2^4 possible models (for each model we independently decide whether to include or not a feature).
Value
matrix of model parameters
Examples
library(magrittr)
data_prepared <- bdsm::economic_growth[, 1:5] %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
excluded_cols = c(country, year, gdp)
) %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
group_by_col = year,
excluded_cols = country,
scale = FALSE
)
init_model_space_params(data_prepared, year, country, gdp)
Dataframe with no lagged column
Description
This function allows to turn data in the format with lagged values for a chosen column (i.e. there are two columns with the same quantity, but one column is lagged in time) into the format with just one column
Usage
join_lagged_col(
df,
col,
col_lagged,
timestamp_col,
entity_col,
timestep = NULL
)
Arguments
df |
Dataframe with data with a column with lagged values |
col |
Column with quantity not lagged |
col_lagged |
Column with the same quantity as |
timestamp_col |
Column with timestamps (e.g. years) |
entity_col |
Column with entities (e.g. countries) |
timestep |
Difference between timestamps (e.g. 10) |
Value
A dataframe with two columns merged, i.e. just one column with the desired quantity is left.
Examples
df <- data.frame(
year = c(2000, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004),
country = c("A", "A", "B", "B", "C"),
gdp = c(1, 2, 3, 4, 5),
gdp_lagged = c(NA, 1, 2, 3, 4)
)
join_lagged_col(df, gdp, gdp_lagged, year, country, 1)
Calculation of of the jointness measures
Description
This function calculates four types of the jointness measures based on the posterior model probabilities calculated using binomial and binomial-beta model prior. The four measures are:
HCGHM - for Hofmarcher et al. (2018) measure;
LS - for Ley & Steel (2007) measure;
DW - for Doppelhofer & Weeks (2009) measure;
PPI - for posterior probability of including both variables.
The measures under binomial model prior will appear in a table above the diagonal, and the measure calculated under binomial-beta model prior below the diagonal.
REFERENCES
Doppelhofer G, Weeks M (2009) Jointness of growth determinants. Journal of Applied Econometrics., 24(2), 209-244. doi: 10.1002/jae.1046
Hofmarcher P, Crespo Cuaresma J, GrĂ¼n B, Humer S, Moser M (2018) Bivariate jointness measures in Bayesian Model Averaging: Solving the conundrum. Journal of Macroeconomics, 57, 150-165. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2018.05.005
Ley E, Steel M (2007) Jointness in Bayesian variable selection with applications to growth regression. Journal of Macroeconomics, 29(3), 476-493. doi: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2006.12.002
Usage
jointness(bma_list, measure = "HCGHM", rho = 0.5, round = 3)
Arguments
bma_list |
bma object (the result of the bma function) |
measure |
Parameter for choosing the measure of jointness: |
rho |
The parameter "rho" ( |
round |
Parameter indicating the decimal place to which the jointness measures should be rounded (default round = 3). |
Value
A table with jointness measures for all the pairs of regressors used in the analysis. Parameter "above" indicates what model prior is used for the values ABOVE the diagonal, and parameter "below" indicates what model prior is used for the values BELOW the diagonal.
Examples
library(magrittr)
data_prepared <- bdsm::economic_growth[, 1:6] %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
excluded_cols = c(country, year, gdp)
) %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
group_by_col = year,
excluded_cols = country,
scale = FALSE
)
bma_results <- bma(
model_space = bdsm::small_model_space,
df = data_prepared,
round = 3,
dilution = 0
)
jointness_table <- jointness(bma_results, measure = "HCGHM", rho = 0.5, round = 3)
List of matrices for SEM model
Description
List of matrices for SEM model
Usage
matrices_from_df(
df,
timestamp_col,
entity_col,
dep_var_col,
lin_related_regressors = NULL,
which_matrices = c("Y1", "Y2", "Z", "cur_Y2", "cur_Z", "res_maker_matrix")
)
Arguments
df |
Dataframe with data for the likelihood computations. |
timestamp_col |
Column which determines time stamps. For now only natural numbers can be used. |
entity_col |
Column which determines entities (e.g. countries, people) |
dep_var_col |
Column with dependent variable |
lin_related_regressors |
Vector of strings of column names. Which subset of regressors is in non trivial
linear relation with the dependent variable ( |
which_matrices |
character vector with names of matrices which should be
computed. Possible matrices are
|
Value
Named list with matrices as its elements
Examples
matrices_from_df(economic_growth, year, country, gdp, c("pop", "sed"),
c("Y1", "Y2"))
Graphs of the prior and posterior model probabilities for the best individual models
Description
This function draws four graphs of prior and posterior model probabilities for the best individual models:
a) The results with binomial model prior (based on PMP - posterior model probability)
b) The results with binomial-beta model prior (based on PMP - posterior model probability)
Models on the graph are ordered according to their posterior model probability.
Arguments
bma_list |
bma_list object (the result of the bma function) |
top |
The number of the best model to be placed on the graphs |
Value
A list with three graphs with prior and posterior model probabilities for individual models:
The results with binomial model prior (based on PMP - posterior model probability)
The results with binomial-beta model prior (based on PMP - posterior model probability)
On graph combining the aforementioned graphs
Examples
library(magrittr)
data_prepared <- bdsm::economic_growth[, 1:6] %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
excluded_cols = c(country, year, gdp)
) %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
group_by_col = year,
excluded_cols = country,
scale = FALSE
)
bma_results <- bma(
model_space = bdsm::small_model_space,
df = data_prepared,
round = 3,
dilution = 0
)
model_graphs <- model_pmp(bma_results, top = 16)
Graphs of the prior and posterior model probabilities of the model sizes
Description
This function draws four graphs of prior and posterior model probabilities:
a) The results with binomial model prior (based on PMP - posterior model probability)
b) The results with binomial-beta model prior (based on PMP - posterior model probability)
Arguments
bma_list |
bma_list object (the result of the bma function) |
Value
A list with three graphs with prior and posterior model probabilities for model sizes:
The results with binomial model prior (based on PMP - posterior model probability)
The results with binomial-beta model prior (based on PMP - posterior model probability)
One graph combining all the aforementioned graphs
Examples
library(magrittr)
data_prepared <- bdsm::economic_growth[, 1:6] %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
excluded_cols = c(country, year, gdp)
) %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
group_by_col = year,
excluded_cols = country,
scale = FALSE
)
bma_results <- bma(
model_space = bdsm::small_model_space,
df = data_prepared,
round = 3,
dilution = 0
)
size_graphs <- model_sizes(bma_results)
Calculation of the model_space object
Description
This function calculates model space, values of the maximized likelihood function, BICs, and standard deviations of the parameters that will be used in Bayesian model averaging.
Usage
optim_model_space(
df,
timestamp_col,
entity_col,
dep_var_col,
init_value,
exact_value = FALSE,
cl = NULL,
control = list(trace = 2, maxit = 10000, fnscale = -1, REPORT = 100, scale = 0.05)
)
Arguments
df |
Data frame with data for the analysis. |
timestamp_col |
The name of the column with time stamps |
entity_col |
Column with entities (e.g. countries) |
dep_var_col |
Column with the dependent variable |
init_value |
The value with which the model space will be initialized. This will be the starting point for the numerical optimization. |
exact_value |
Whether the exact value of the likelihood should be
computed ( |
cl |
An optional cluster object. If supplied, the function will use this
cluster for parallel processing. If |
control |
a list of control parameters for the optimization which are
passed to optim. Default is
|
Value
List with two objects:
params - table with parameters of all estimated models
stats - table with the value of maximized likelihood function, BIC, and standard errors for all estimated models
Examples
## Not run:
library(magrittr)
data_prepared <- bdsm::economic_growth[, 1:5] %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
excluded_cols = c(country, year, gdp)
) %>%
bdsm::feature_standardization(
group_by_col = year,
excluded_cols = country,
scale = FALSE
)
optim_model_space(
df = data_prepared,
dep_var_col = gdp,
timestamp_col = year,
entity_col = country,
init_value = 0.5
)
## End(Not run)
Finds MLE parameters for each model in the given model space
Description
Given a dataset and an initial value for parameters, initializes a model space with parameters equal to the initial value for each model. Then for each model performs a numerical optimization and finds parameters which maximize the likelihood.
Usage
optim_model_space_params(
df,
timestamp_col,
entity_col,
dep_var_col,
init_value,
exact_value = FALSE,
cl = NULL,
control = list(trace = 2, maxit = 10000, fnscale = -1, REPORT = 100, scale = 0.05)
)
Arguments
df |
Data frame with data for the analysis. |
timestamp_col |
The name of the column with time stamps. |
entity_col |
Column with entities (e.g. countries). |
dep_var_col |
Column with the dependent variable. |
init_value |
The value with which the model space will be initialized. This will be the starting point for the numerical optimization. |
exact_value |
Whether the exact value of the likelihood should be
computed ( |
cl |
An optional cluster object. If supplied, the function will use this
cluster for parallel processing. If |
control |
a list of control parameters for the optimization which are
passed to optim. Default is
|
Value
List (or matrix) of parameters describing analyzed models.
Economic Growth Data in the original format
Description
Data used in Growth Empirics in Panel Data under Model Uncertainty and Weak Exogeneity (Moral-Benito, 2016, Journal of Applied Econometrics).
Usage
original_economic_growth
Format
original_economic_growth
A data frame with 292 rows and 13 columns (73 countries and 4 periods + extra one for lagged dependent variable):
- year
Year
- country
Country ID
- gdp
Logarithm of GDP per capita (2000 US dollars at PP)
- gdp_lag
Lagged logarithm of GDP per capita (2000 US dollars at PP)
- ish
Ratio of real domestic investment to GDP
- sed
Stock of years of secondary education in the total population
- pgrw
Average growth rate of population
- pop
Population in millions of people
- ipr
Purchasing-power-parity numbers for investment goods
- opem
Exports plus imports as a share of GDP
- gsh
Ratio of government consumption to GDP
- lnlex
Logarithm of the life expectancy at birth
- polity
Composite index given by the democracy score minus the autocracy score
Source
http://qed.econ.queensu.ca/jae/datasets/moral-benito001/
Helper function to extract names from a vector defining a model
Description
For now it is assumed that we can only exclude linear relationships between regressors and the dependent variable.
Usage
regressor_names_from_params_vector(params)
Arguments
params |
a vector with parameters describing the model |
Details
The vector needs to have named rows, i.e. it is assumed it comes from a model space (see init_model_space_params for details).
Value
Names of regressors which are assumed to be linearly connected with dependent
variable within the model described by the params
vector.
Examples
params <- c(alpha = 1, beta_gdp = 1, beta_gdp_lagged = 1, phi_0 = 1, err_var = 1)
regressor_names_from_params_vector(params)
Residual Maker Matrix
Description
Create residual maker matrix from a given matrix m
. See article about
projection matrix on
the Wikipedia.
Usage
residual_maker_matrix(m)
Arguments
m |
Matrix |
Value
M x M matrix where M is the number of rows in the m
matrix.
Examples
residual_maker_matrix(matrix(c(1,2,3,4), nrow = 2))
Coefficients matrix for SEM representation
Description
Create coefficients matrix for Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM) representation.
Usage
sem_B_matrix(alpha, periods_n, beta = c())
Arguments
alpha |
numeric |
periods_n |
integer |
beta |
numeric vector. Default is c() for no regressors case. |
Value
List with two matrices B11 and B12
Examples
sem_B_matrix(3, 4, 4:6)
Coefficients matrix for initial conditions
Description
Create matrix for Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM) representation with coefficients placed next to initial values of regressors, dependent variable and country-specific time-invariant variables.
Usage
sem_C_matrix(alpha, phi_0, periods_n, beta = c(), phi_1 = c())
Arguments
alpha |
numeric |
phi_0 |
numeric |
periods_n |
numeric |
beta |
numeric vector. Default is c() for no regressors case. |
phi_1 |
numeric vector. Default is c() for no regressors case. |
Value
matrix
Examples
alpha <- 9
phi_0 <- 19
beta <- 11:15
phi_1 <- 21:25
periods_n <- 4
sem_C_matrix(alpha, phi_0, periods_n, beta, phi_1)
Matrix with dependent variable data for SEM representation
Description
Create matrix which contains dependent variable data used in the Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM) representation on the left hand side of the equations. The matrix contains the data for time periods greater than or equal to the second lowest time stamp. The matrix is then used to compute likelihood for SEM analysis.
Usage
sem_dep_var_matrix(df, timestamp_col, entity_col, dep_var_col)
Arguments
df |
Data frame with data for the SEM analysis. |
timestamp_col |
Column which determines time periods. For now only natural numbers can be used as timestamps |
entity_col |
Column which determines entities (e.g. countries, people) |
dep_var_col |
Column with dependent variable |
Value
Matrix of size N x T where N is the number of entities considered and T is the number of periods greater than or equal to the second lowest time stamp.
Examples
set.seed(1)
df <- data.frame(
entities = rep(1:4, 5),
times = rep(seq(1960, 2000, 10), each = 4),
dep_var = stats::rnorm(20), a = stats::rnorm(20), b = stats::rnorm(20)
)
sem_dep_var_matrix(df, times, entities, dep_var)
Likelihood for the SEM model
Description
Likelihood for the SEM model
Usage
sem_likelihood(
params,
data,
timestamp_col,
entity_col,
dep_var_col,
lin_related_regressors = NULL,
per_entity = FALSE,
exact_value = TRUE
)
Arguments
params |
Parameters describing the model. Can be either a vector or a list with named parameters. See 'Details' |
data |
Data for the likelihood computations. Can be either a list of matrices or a dataframe. If the dataframe, additional parameters are required to build the matrices within the function. |
timestamp_col |
Column which determines time stamps. For now only natural numbers can be used. |
entity_col |
Column which determines entities (e.g. countries, people) |
dep_var_col |
Column with dependent variable |
lin_related_regressors |
Which subset of columns should be used as
regressors for the current model. In other words |
per_entity |
Whether to compute overall likelihood or a vector of likelihoods with per entity value |
exact_value |
Whether the exact value of the likelihood should be
computed ( |
Details
The params
argument is a list that should contain the following
components:
alpha
scalar value which determines linear dependence on lagged
dependent variable
phi_0
scalar value which determines linear dependence on the value
of dependent variable at the lowest time stamp
err_var
scalar value which determines classical error component
(Sigma11 matrix, sigma_epsilon^2)
dep_vars
double vector of length equal to the number of time stamps
(i.e. time stamps greater than or equal to the second lowest time stamp)
beta
double vector which determines the linear dependence on
regressors different than the lagged dependent variable; The vector should
have length equal to the number of regressors.
phi_1
double vector which determines the linear dependence on
initial values of regressors different than the lagged dependent variable;
The vector should have length equal to the number of regressors.
phis
double vector which together with psis
determines upper
right and bottom left part of the covariance matrix; The vector should have
length equal to the number of regressors times number of time stamps minus 1,
i.e. regressors_n * (periods_n - 1)
psis
double vector which together with psis
determines upper
right and bottom left part of the covariance matrix; The vector should have
length equal to the number of regressors times number of time stamps minus 1
times number of time stamps divided by 2, i.e.
regressors_n * (periods_n - 1) * periods_n / 2
Value
The value of the likelihood for SEM model (or a part of interest of the likelihood)
Examples
set.seed(1)
df <- data.frame(
entities = rep(1:4, 5),
times = rep(seq(1960, 2000, 10), each = 4),
dep_var = stats::rnorm(20), a = stats::rnorm(20), b = stats::rnorm(20)
)
df <-
feature_standardization(df, excluded_cols = c(times, entities))
sem_likelihood(0.5, df, times, entities, dep_var)
Matrix with psi parameters for SEM representation
Description
Matrix with psi parameters for SEM representation
Usage
sem_psi_matrix(psis, timestamps_n, features_n)
Arguments
psis |
double vector with psi parameter values |
timestamps_n |
number of time stamps (e.g. years) |
features_n |
number of features (e.g. population size, investment rate) |
Value
A matrix with timestamps_n
rows and
(timestamps_n - 1) * feature_n
columns. Psis are filled in row by row
in a block manner, i.e. blocks of size feature_n
are placed next to
each other
Examples
sem_psi_matrix(1:30, 4, 5)
Matrix with regressors data for SEM representation
Description
Create matrix which contains regressors data used in the Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM) representation on the left hand side of the equations. The matrix contains regressors data for time periods greater than or equal to the second lowest time stamp. The matrix is then used to compute likelihood for SEM analysis.
Usage
sem_regressors_matrix(df, timestamp_col, entity_col, dep_var_col)
Arguments
df |
Data frame with data for the SEM analysis. |
timestamp_col |
Column which determines time periods. For now only natural numbers can be used as timestamps |
entity_col |
Column which determines entities (e.g. countries, people) |
dep_var_col |
Column with dependent variable |
Value
Matrix of size N x (T-1)*k where N is the number of entities considered, T is
the number of periods greater than or equal to the second lowest time stamp
and k is the number of chosen regressors. If there are no regressors returns
NULL
.
Examples
set.seed(1)
df <- data.frame(
entities = rep(1:4, 5),
times = rep(seq(1960, 2000, 10), each = 4),
dep_var = stats::rnorm(20), a = stats::rnorm(20), b = stats::rnorm(20)
)
sem_regressors_matrix(df, times, entities, dep_var)
Covariance matrix for SEM representation
Description
Create covariance matrix for Simultaneous Equations Model (SEM) representation. Only the part necessary to compute concentrated likelihood function is computed (cf. Appendix in the Moral-Benito paper)
Usage
sem_sigma_matrix(err_var, dep_vars, phis = c(), psis = c())
Arguments
err_var |
numeric |
dep_vars |
numeric vector |
phis |
numeric vector |
psis |
numeric vector |
Value
List with two matrices Sigma11 and Sigma12
Examples
err_var <- 1
dep_vars <- c(2, 2, 2, 2)
phis <- c(10, 10, 20, 20, 30, 30)
psis <- c(101, 102, 103, 104, 105, 106, 107, 108, 109, 110, 111, 112)
sem_sigma_matrix(err_var, dep_vars, phis, psis)
Example output of the optim_model_space function (small version)
Description
A list with two elements: params
and stats
computed using the
optim_model_space
function and the economic_growth
dataset, but
using only three regressors: ish
, sed
and pgrw
.
Usage
small_model_space
Format
small_model_space
A list with two elements.
- params
-
A double matrix with 40 rows and
2^3 = 8
columns with the parameters for the model space. Each column represents a different model. - stats
-
A matrix representing the statistics computed with
compute_model_space_stats
based onparams
. The first row contains likelihoods for the models. The second row are almost 1/2 * BIC_k as in Raftery's Bayesian Model Selection in Social Research, eq. 19. The rows 3-7 are standard deviations. Finally, the rows 8-12 are robust standard deviations.